This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday afternoon here.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Heat at Bucks, 9:30 p.m. | TV: NBA TV
- The Pick: Heat +12 (-110)
- Key Trend: The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
This Heat-Bucks series has been surprising, to say the least. The Heat have looked like the team that is the top seed in the East rather than the other way around. Considering how well Miami has been playing, I’m backing the underdog in this spot. And yes, I understand that the Heat are on the road… but being a double-digit dog seems a tad crazy.
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Miami possesses a 7-3 record ATS when facing Milwaukee in the last 10 meetings. In three of their four wins in the series, the Heat have won by an average of 13.3 points. One of the biggest reasons for the success has been Jimmy Butler. He is playing on a completely different level, averaging 36.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5 assists while shooting 52.9 percent from beyond the arc. The Heat star is fresh off of a monster 56-point effort in Game 4. I’m confident that he’ll continue to come to play in Game 5, especially with Miami having a chance to close out this series.
💰 More Picks
Kraken at Avalanche, 9:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Kraken (+158) — We’ve got a battle of two teams that are missing star players in a very pivotal Game 5. The Avalanche will be without star defenseman Cale Makar, who will be serving a one-game suspension for his hit on Kraken forward Jared McCann in the opening period of Game 4. As a result of the physical hit, McCann has been ruled out for Wednesday’s contest and could miss multiple games.
Even without McCann in the lineup, I believe that Makar is the bigger loss, so riding with the Kraken to pull off the upset on the road. Yes, McCann was phenomenal throughout the regular season, as he tallied a career-high 40 goals. But winger Ryan Donato stepped up onto Seattle’s first line in place of McCann for the majority of Game 4 and thrived in that role.
According to Natural Stat Trick, Donato compiled 9:10 playing time alongside Beniers and Eberle in five-on-five ice time, which ended up being the second-most used line combination for the Kraken in five-on-five situations. Donato ended up registering five shots-on-goal, and that was second on the team behind only Jaden Schwartz’s 11 shots on net. He’ll just continue to do just fine and will face a less defensive resistance with Makar out of the lineup.
Key Trend: The Kraken are 10-4 in their last 14 road games
Lakers at Grizzlies, 7:30 p.m. | TV: TNT
The Pick: D’Angelo Russell Over 15.5 Points (-117) — Lost in the Lakers’ miraculous Game 4 comeback, which was headlined by that LeBron James layup, is the fact that D’Angelo Russell helped bring the team back before fouling out in the final minutes. Russell connected on a pair of threes with under five minutes to go to erase a seven-point deficit. His fearless shooting approach is why I’m on this points prop.
Aside from a five-point performance in Game 2, Russell has netted at least 17 points in each of the other three games this series. We’re talking about a guard that is attempting 14.3 shots per contest while also taking 7.3 three-point attempts per game. While the defense is focusing on LeBron James, Anthony Davis, or even Austin Reaves, Russell should be able to get to the 16-point mark that we need in this spot.
Key Trend: Russell has scored at least 17 points in three of the four games in this series
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Publish Date:2023-04-27 04:29:57