Kansas State vs Montana State prediction, odds: 2023 NCAA Tournament picks, March Madness bets by proven model

Greensboro Coliseum hosts a quadruple header of 2023 NCAA Tournament action on Friday. The final game of the evening features a matchup between the No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats and the No. 14 Montana State Bobcats in the East Region. Kansas State is 23-9 in Jerome Tang’s first season at the helm. Montana State is 25-9, including a Big Sky Conference title and 14 wins in the last 15 games.

Tipoff is at 9:40 p.m. ET in Greensboro. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Wildcats as 8-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 139.5 in the latest Montana State vs. Kansas State odds. Before locking in any Kansas State vs. Montana State picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Kansas State vs. Montana State and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Montana State vs. Kansas State:

• Montana State vs. Kansas State spread: KSU -8
• Montana State vs. Kansas State over/under: 139.5 points
• Montana State vs. Kansas State money line: KSU -360, MSU +280
• Montana State: The Bobcats are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
• Kansas State: The Wildcats are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
• Montana State vs. Kansas State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Montana State can cover

Montana State’s offense stands out in specific traits. The Bobcats are in the top five of the country in free throw creation rate, leading to the No. 2 national mark with 17.8 free throws made per contest. Montana State also has only 5.5% of shots blocked, a top-tier mark, and the Bobcats make 52.4% of 2-point attempts. Montana State is strong in ball security with a 17.6% turnover rate, and the Bobcats have pathways to exploit a Kansas State defense that is strongly below the national average in defensive rebound rate (70.8%) and free throw prevention (21.0 attempts allowed per game). 

On defense, Montana State is allowing only 8.9 assists per game, one of the best marks in the nation, and opponents are shooting only 48% from 2-point range. The Bobcats create a turnover on 20.1% of defensive possessions, while Kansas State commits a giveaway on 20.0% of offensive trips. Kansas State also has a 10.4% live-ball turnover rate that Montana State can benefit from, and the Bobcats secure nearly 75% of available rebounds on the defensive glass.

Why Kansas State can cover 

Kansas State is led by a standout pairing of All-Big 12 selections in Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. Johnson was No. 2 in the conference with 17.7 points per game this season, adding 7.0 rebounds per game and shooting 51.9% from the field and 41.9% from 3-point range. Nowell led the Big 12 in assists (7.6 per game), steals (2.4 per game), and free throw accuracy (88.5%), with Nowell also ranking in the top five of the conference with 16.8 points per game. 

From a team standpoint, Kansas State is in the top 12 nationally with 16.8 assists per game, and the Wildcats take advantage of the free throw line. Kansas State is stout in free throw creation, averaging 21.3 attempts per game and making 75% of shots at the charity stripe. Kansas State secures 31.1% of missed shots on the offensive glass while shooting 51.8% on 2-point attempts, and Montana State struggles in 3-point defense, yielding 34.8% shooting to opponents from beyond the arc.

How to make Montana State vs. Kansas State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 143 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Kansas State vs. Montana State? And which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.