Warriors vs. Spurs prediction, odds, line, spread: 2023 NBA picks, Jan. 13 best bets from proven model

The Golden State Warriors begin a five-game road trip on Friday with an intriguing matchup. The Warriors visit the San Antonio Spurs in a game expected to set the NBA attendance record at the Alamodome. Golden State is 20-21 this season, with San Antonio entering at 13-29 overall. James Wiseman (ankle), Jonathan Kuminga (foot), and JaMychal Green (leg) are out for the Warriors. Devin Vassell (knee) is out of action for the Spurs.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in San Antonio. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Warriors as 8.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 243.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Spurs odds. Before you make any Spurs vs. Warriors picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 43-19 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Spurs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Spurs vs. Warriors:

• Warriors vs. Spurs spread: Warriors -8.5
• Warriors vs. Spurs over/under: 243.5 points
• Warriors vs. Spurs money line: Warriors -365, Spurs +285
• GS: The Warriors are 4-15 against the spread in road games
• SA: The Spurs are 12-9 against the spread in home games
• Warriors vs. Spurs picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State’s defense is in a strong position in this matchup. The Warriors create 15.0 takeaways per game, and San Antonio has glaring offensive shortcomings. The Spurs are scoring only 110.4 points per 100 possessions, a bottom-five mark in the league, and San Antonio is in the bottom five in free throw creation, free throw accuracy, and ball security. On the other end, the Warriors are facing a Spurs defense that is dead-last in points allowed per possession (1.189), and San Antonio is poor on the defensive glass. 

Golden State is led by the game’s best marksman in Stephen Curry, who is averaging 29.7 points per game, and the Warriors are leading the NBA in assists (29.1 per game), assist percentage (69.0%), and 3-pointers (16.1 per game). The Warriors are also in the top eight in both 3-point accuracy (37.2%) and 2-point accuracy (56.0%), with a free-flowing offensive approach that puts pressure on the opposition from myriad angles.

Why the Spurs can cover

The Spurs have clear strengths on offense, including a strong passing attack. San Antonio averages 27.1 assists per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and the Spurs assist on 63.0% of field goals. The Spurs are tremendous on the offensive glass, securing nearly 31% of missed shots, and San Antonio is in the top eight of the league with 15.7 second-chance points per game. San Antonio is in the top five with 55.1 points in the paint per game, and the Spurs are shooting 47.2% from the field. 

On defense, the Spurs effectively prevent free throw attempts, yielding only 22.8 per game, and San Antonio is facing a Golden State team that is dead-last in the league with only 20.1 free throw attempts per game. The Spurs can also be opportunistic against a Warriors team that is second-worst in the NBA in turnover rate, giving the ball away on 16.1% of offensive possessions.

How to make Spurs vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, with five players projected to score at least 17 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.